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Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, a leader both feared and admired, is seeking to extend his 24-year rule in an election analysts predict he will win by a landslide.
President Kagame, 66, has dominated every election since he took office in 2000, consistently securing over 90% of the vote. His 2017 victory saw him win with an overwhelming 99%.
This year, he faces two contenders authorized by the state-run electoral commission to run. Other candidates were barred from participating. Kagame has been a central figure in Rwandan politics since his rebel forces ended the 1994 genocide, which resulted in the deaths of about 800,000 ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus. His leadership is credited with Rwanda’s dramatic revival and unification.
“Rwanda was 30 years ago essentially written off – but thanks to some extent to the leadership under Kagame and his ruling party Rwanda managed to build some stability,” said Dr. Felix Ndahinda, a scholar on the Great Lakes region, in an interview with the BBC.
However, critics accuse Kagame of stifling opposition and orchestrating cross-border assassinations of dissidents. Kagame defends Rwanda’s human rights record, asserting that his country respects political freedoms. Despite this, some analysts view the election as a mere “formality.”
According to the electoral body, around nine million people are registered to vote, with at least two million being first-time voters. A provisional winner is expected to be known by Tuesday morning. Voters will elect the president and 53 members of the lower House of Parliament on Monday, with 27 other MPs being elected the following day.
“I am very excited about voting for my first time, I can’t wait,” Sylvia Mutoni told the BBC. For many young Rwandans, Kagame is the only leader they have known, even during his tenure as vice-president and defense minister from 1994 to 2000, when he was effectively the country’s leader.
The two opposition candidates – Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party and independent Philippe Mpayimana – both participated in the 2017 election, where they received less than 1% of the vote between them. Despite this, they remain undeterred.
“I believe democracy is a process,” Habineza told the BBC Focus on Africa podcast. “People still have a fear of expressing their opinions. I’m fighting for freedom of speech, freedom of the media,” he said.
Some Rwandans are heeding his message. Celestin Mutuyeyezu, 28, who once supported Kagame, has been swayed by Habineza’s focus on combating unemployment. “He said great things on fighting unemployment, and he’s got me,” Mutuyeyezu said.
However, defeating President Kagame remains a formidable challenge. Diane Rwigara, a vocal critic of Kagame, was barred from running in the election, as she was in 2017. “Rwanda is portrayed as a country where the economy has been growing. But on the ground, it’s different. People do lack the basics of life, food, water, shelter,” she told the BBC. The electoral commission cited her failure to provide correct documentation as the reason for her disqualification.
Despite high rates of youth unemployment, Rwanda is one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Kagame is widely credited for the country’s economic transformation and stability over the last three decades. Rwanda is globally recognized for its clean capital city and having the world’s highest proportion of female MPs, at 61%.
In their book Rwanda, Inc., American authors Patricia Crisafulli and Andrea Redmond describe Kagame as more of a company CEO than a political leader due to “his drive for excellence” in every sector in the country.
